The Bundestag Election 2025 was one of the most anticipated political events in Germany, with voters eager to shape the country’s future direction. Held on February 23, 2025, this election determined the new composition of the Bundestag and had significant implications for Germany’s governance. With record voter turnout and unexpected shifts in party standings, the election results have set the stage for a transformative political landscape.
CDU/CSU Emerges as the Leading Party
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured the highest number of votes, gaining 28.6% of the total vote share. This victory positions Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, as the frontrunner to become the next Chancellor of Germany.
The CDU/CSU’s campaign emphasized:
- Economic stability
- Strengthening European ties
- Immigration control reforms
- Enhancing security and defense policies
Despite emerging as the dominant force, their 28.6% share falls short of an outright majority, necessitating coalition negotiations.
The Rise of the AfD: A Political Milestone
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made historic gains in this election, securing 20.8% of the vote. This marks a significant increase from their previous election results and establishes them as the second-largest party in the Bundestag.
The AfD performed particularly well in eastern Germany, where it outpolled all other parties in five states. Their campaign centered on:
- Stricter immigration policies
- Anti-EU sentiments
- Economic nationalism
This rise in support has sparked debates about the party’s future influence in shaping Germany’s domestic and foreign policies.
SPD Suffers a Major Defeat
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, faced a historic defeat, securing only 16.4% of the vote. This marks their worst-ever performance in a federal election.
Following the loss, Olaf Scholz announced his resignation as the party leader. The SPD’s campaign, which focused on social welfare, climate action, and economic fairness, struggled to resonate with voters who leaned toward more conservative or nationalist policies this time.
Performance of Other Key Parties
The Greens: Moderate Decline
The Greens, known for their pro-environmental stance, secured 11.6% of the vote—a slight decline from their previous election results. Despite their continued advocacy for climate change policies, many voters prioritized economic stability over environmental reforms.
The Left Party (Die Linke): A Surprising Resurgence
The Left Party (Die Linke) secured 8.8% of the vote, marking a revival compared to their last federal election results. They performed well in Berlin, winning direct mandates in key constituencies such as:
- Lichtenberg
- Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
- Neukölln
This resurgence indicates continued support for socialist policies among urban voters.
FDP Fails to Enter Bundestag
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) faced a devastating loss, failing to cross the 5% threshold and securing only 4.3% of the vote. This result means the FDP will not have any representation in the Bundestag, leading to the resignation of key figures Christian Lindner and Wolfgang Kubicki from active politics.
The Narrow Loss of the BSW
The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly missed the 5% threshold, falling short by around 14,000 votes with 4.972% of the total count. This unexpected outcome simplifies coalition negotiations for the CDU/CSU, as they no longer need to accommodate BSW in government formation.
Coalition Possibilities and Future Government
With no party securing an absolute majority, coalition talks will be crucial in determining Germany’s next government. The possible scenarios include:
1. CDU/CSU + SPD Coalition (Grand Coalition)
- Likely the most feasible option
- Stable majority in Bundestag
- Friedrich Merz likely to become Chancellor
2. CDU/CSU + The Greens
- Possible but challenging due to ideological differences
- Greens would demand strong climate policies, which may conflict with CDU/CSU’s economic stance
3. CDU/CSU + FDP (Now Not Possible)
- Would have been an option if FDP had met the 5% threshold
- With FDP out, this scenario is no longer viable
Given the election results, the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition appears to be the most practical choice to ensure government stability.
High Voter Turnout and New Bundestag Size
This election witnessed a record voter turnout of 83.5%, reflecting strong public engagement and interest in Germany’s political future.
Additionally, a recent reform has reduced the size of the Bundestag to 630 seats, with 316 seats required for a majority. The distribution of seats is as follows:
- CDU/CSU: 208 seats
- SPD: 121 seats
- AfD: 150 seats
- Greens: 90 seats
- Die Linke: 61 seats
What’s Next for Germany?
The next few weeks will be crucial as coalition negotiations unfold. Friedrich Merz has expressed his intention to form a government by Easter, focusing on:
- Strengthening European integration
- Reducing Germany’s reliance on the U.S.
- Implementing economic reforms
The rise of the AfD and the decline of traditional centrist parties suggest a shifting political landscape. Germany’s next government will face challenges in balancing economic stability, immigration policies, and climate action.
Conclusion
The 2025 Bundestag Election has brought significant political changes to Germany. With CDU/CSU leading, the SPD struggling, and AfD making historic gains, the formation of a new government will be a defining moment for the country’s future. As coalition talks progress, Germany’s political direction for the next few years will become clearer.
